SpaceX Prepares for Crucial 10th Starship Test Flight Sunday

SpaceX is gearing up for a significant milestone as its Starship rocket prepares for a 10th test flight scheduled for 19:30 Eastern Time on Sunday. This launch follows a series of setbacks and is crucial for both SpaceX and NASA, which relies on Starship to facilitate lunar missions. According to Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, “The stakes are the highest they’ve ever been for a Starship launch.” While he notes it is not a “make or break” moment, the need for progress is pressing.

Weather conditions and technical issues may affect the launch schedule. As of Saturday, SpaceX indicated that unfavorable weather could delay liftoff by up to an hour before ultimately calling off the attempt. The company plans to begin its live stream approximately 30 minutes prior to the launch.

Understanding Starship and Its Objectives

Starship represents the largest and most powerful rocket constructed to date. With an ambitious goal of being fully reusable, it consists of an upper-stage spacecraft, also named Starship, and a booster stage known as the Super Heavy, equipped with 33 engines. If successful, this innovative design could transform the space industry by enabling the launch of heavier payloads at significantly reduced costs.

SpaceX operates under a “break it and fix it” philosophy, which contrasts sharply with the traditional methods employed by NASA and older aerospace companies. This approach has resulted in rapid development cycles but has also led to multiple failures during recent test flights.

The seventh, eighth, and ninth test flights experienced critical failures. Notably, a malfunction in the fuel tank pressurization system caused a methane leak, leading to a catastrophic end for one flight as it tumbled and burned up upon re-entry over the Indian Ocean. Previous flights had similarly ended in disintegration during ascent, prompting SpaceX to redesign the problematic diffuser component.

What to Expect from the Upcoming Test Flight

During the upcoming test, the Super Heavy booster will propel the Starship through the densest part of the Earth’s atmosphere. Approximately 2 minutes and 38 seconds into the flight, the upper-stage spacecraft’s engines will ignite while the booster separates and aims for a simulated landing in the Gulf of Mexico. This flight will test alternative engine configurations during descent before the booster splashes down.

The Starship upper stage will continue to reach orbital speeds and will ultimately re-enter over the Indian Ocean. This phase is designed to test the deployment of eight mock-ups of SpaceX’s next-generation Starlink internet satellites, along with a brief engine firing in space. These in-space engine burns are critical for future missions when Starship aims to enter orbit and subsequently maneuver back to Earth.

This launch comes after a previous test rocket was destroyed in June during an engine test on the ground, underscoring the risks involved in the development process.

Looking ahead, SpaceX aims to launch an uncrewed Starship to Mars in September 2024, with the potential for a crewed flight as early as 2028. Elon Musk has expressed cautious optimism about meeting these timelines, estimating a 50/50 chance for success.

NASA’s lunar ambitions also hinge on the Starship program, with the Artemis III mission planned for late 2027. This mission aims to land astronauts in the moon’s south polar region, utilizing a version of Starship as the lunar lander. Given current delays, the launch may extend into 2028 or later, as SpaceX must demonstrate multiple capabilities, including rapid successive launches and propellant transfers.

Meanwhile, China is making strides in its own lunar program, with aspirations to land astronauts before 2030. Recent successful tests of a lunar lander have raised concerns that China may achieve this goal ahead of NASA. Harrison considers this scenario more likely than not, suggesting that such an outcome would carry psychological implications rather than significant operational consequences.

As Sunday’s launch approaches, the world watches closely to see if SpaceX can achieve the advancements necessary for its ambitious goals in space exploration.